Let’s take a look at the sharp action report for Week 9 of the NFL Season.
Note: All analysis is done at the time of writing, and lines may have moved since. All betting data is based from The Action Network.
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This one is a Pros vs. Joes classic. The Atlanta Falcons (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) will travel to New Orleans to play the Saints (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS). The Falcons are off a disappointing loss at home to the Carolina Panthers, while the Saints just beat the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home. Now, these two AFC South rivals, headed in seemingly opposite directions, will face off.
But the sharps aren’t buying the Saints as much as the public. After all, they’ll be going into this game with Trevor Semien after Jameis Winston suffered a torn ACL last week. The Falcons, meanwhile, have the perception of a team in free fall, especially given Calvin Ridley is taking a leave of absence.
The Falcons are receiving just 44% of the bets, but are getting 62% of the money, an 18% differential. Six is a lot of points to give in a divisional matchup, especially when the team giving six will be playing with a backup QB. I think the sharps are right on this one and I will be taking the Falcons +6.
The Arizona Cardinals (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) will travel to San Francisco to face off against the 49ers (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS). The Cardinals are off the heels of a heartbreaking loss on Thursday night at home to the Green Bay Packers. To add insult to injury, Kyler Murray injured himself on the final drive that ended in a bizarre interception.
The 49ers, on the other hand, just covered as 4 point road favorites against the Chicago Bears. Which, as we know, is nothing to scoff at. So, is it time to start fading the Arizona Cardinals and Cliff Kingsbury after their fast start? The sharps certainly think so. In fact, Cliff Kingsbury has a history of losing games at the end of the season. In his first year as head coach, he lost seven of his last nine games of the season, and then lost six of his last nine games last year.
Their isn’t much on the Bet% and Money%. 63% of the bets are on the Cardinals along with 61% of the money. Where it gets interesting, though, is in the line movement. This may have a bit to do with who is playing quarterback for the Cardinals this week, or how injured Kyler Murray is. But nonetheless, this line has bounced back from +1.5 to +1 nearly nine times this week, even with all of that money on the Cardinals.
I think this is a run-for-the-hills spot if you’re planning on betting on the Cardinals. Vegas is practically begging you to. I’ll be in on the 49ers +1 at home. I took the 49ers in their last meeting this season in Arizona, a game the 49ers could have won save a big goal line stop.
The Minnesota Vikings (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) will travel to face off against the Ravens (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) in a battle between two teams that are coming off very disappointing losses. The Ravens did just have their bye, but it comes after a 41-17 home loss to their division rivals, the Bengals. The Vikings, on the other hand, just lost a Primetime game at home to Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys.
The Vikings and Kirk Cousins, despite a let down on Sunday Night, are receiving some sharp action this week. They are receiving just 29% of the bets, but the line has come down from +7 and has bounced from +6.5 to +6 in the last 24 hours. The number 6 has become as much of a key number as the number 7. So it’s not too surprising to see this line get bet from 6.5 to 6. If you can find 6.5 or better, that’ll be the best line.
The New England Patriots (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) just defeated the Los Angeles Chargers on the road as 4-point underdogs and will now travel to Carolina to face the Panthers (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) as 4-point favorites. Sam Darnold may not play in this game, but the sharps are backing the Panthers and their stout defense to get to Mac Jones and make life difficult for the rookie.
Despite 70% of the bets being on New England, this line has moved from +4 to +3.5 multiple times. Any time it has touched 4, it has immediately gone back down to +3.5, even with all of that money on the Patriots. Sharps tend to gravitate towards home underdogs of greater than a field goal. This might be a slam dunk spot to take the Panthers, as the public is all over the Patriots.
Other lines receiving sharp action:
LV @ NYG (+3)
LAC @ PHI (+1.5)
TEN @ LAR (-7.5)
BUF @ JAX (+14.5)
GB @ KC (-7)