The Super Bowl teams have yet to be determined but a reasonable prediction can be made about the state from which the game’s Most Valuable Player will hail.
For starters, it’s entirely reasonable to forecast the game’s MVP will be a quarterback.
Over 56 Super Bowls, the MVP has been a quarterback 31 times.
That puts the four starting quarterbacks from the NFC and AFC Conference Championship teams in the online sports betting spotlight — Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, San Francisco’s Brock Purdy, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes.
Of course, in the case of Mahomes, that’s assuming the Chiefs’ outstanding QB is able to work through the high ankle sprain he suffered in the first half of Kansas City’s Divisional Round win over Jacksonville. Mahomes did play the second half of the game against the Jaguars albeit hobbling noticeably.
Home Field Advantage Boosts Mahomes
Looking ahead there are other factors. The Chiefs will be at home in extremely loud Arrowhead Stadium, and they’ll have the motivation of revenge from last year’s loss to the Bengals in the AFC Championship.
So, making the assumption Mahomes will be able to play close to form in the Conference Championship game and in the Super Bowl on Feb. 12, the state of Texas is the most likely locale to produce the Super Bowl MVP when factoring Hurts into the potential equation.
Hurts went to Channelview High School in Channelview, Texas, where his father Averion was the football coach. Channelview is east of Houston.
Mahomes is from Tyler, Texas, and went to high school at Whitehouse High School. Tyler, Texas, is southeast of Dallas and has been home to a number of famous athletes, perhaps most famously that of Hall of Fame running back Earl Campbell, who was known as the “Tyler Rose”.
So, with two potential starting quarterbacks in the Super Bowl, Texas becomes a frontrunner for the state most likely to produce the championship game’s MVP at the moment.
Mahomes is the Super Bowl MVP favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook (+325). Hurts and Burrow are tied for second at +350.
Super Bowl MVP Could Hail from Bayou
Another state that could have two offensive stars in the game is Louisiana. Philadelphia wide receiver Devonta Smith and Cincinnati’s Jamarr Chase are both from Louisiana and since they play for teams in different conferences, it is possible they’ll both be in the game and each will have an opportunity to have an outstanding day.
Wide receivers have won the Super Bowl MVP distinction eight times, second to quarterbacks. In fact, the last Super Bowl produced a wide receiver MVP, the Los Angeles Rams’ Cooper Kupp.
However, the power of the quarterback to influence the game is so powerful that Iowa, the home state of Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow figures to be the second most likely state to produce the game’s MVP. But the Burrow-Iowa connection is thin. Burrow was born in Ames, Iowa, but his father was a football coach and the family moved according to the demands of dad’s profession. Burrow attended high school in Athens, Ohio, and won that state’s Mr. Football Award.
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Purdy Could Have Super Bowl Homecoming
The remaining starting quarterback, the 49ers’ Brock Purdy, is from Queen Creek, Arizona, a far southeast suburb in the Phoenix area. Purdy played his high school football at nearby Gilbert High School in the same general area as Queen Creek. So Purdy, if he gets to the Big Game, will be in his hometown for the Super Bowl scheduled for State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Handicapping other likely Super Bowl MVP candidates, along with their home states: San Francisco all-purpose running back Christian McCaffrey is from Colorado; Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce is from Ohio, and 49ers receiver-running back Deebo Samuel is from South Carolina.