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Week 6 NFL Sharp Action Report

A look at where the sharp money is going in Week 6 of the 2021 NFL Season

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+6) 

The Green Bay Packers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) will travel to Soldier Field for a classic NFC North matchup against the Chicago Bears (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS). Despite nearly 74% of the bets on the Packers, the Bears have bounced from +6 to +5.5 multiple times. 

The Bears have looked like a much better team at home than on the road this season, going 2-0 at Soldier Field thus far. The Packers, on the other hand, are 4-1 with a negative point differential. They are fresh off struggling to put away the Bengals a week ago and will likely be trying to just lock down a divisional win on the road and get out of there. It will be the Packers’ second straight game on the road. 

One thing worth noting, though, is that Matt LaFleur is 4-0 Against the Spread (ATS) against the Bears in his time as Packers head coach. Aaron Rodgers is 21-4 SU against the Bears. 

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (+3.5)

The Dallas Cowboys (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) will travel to Foxborough to face off against the New England Patriots (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS). The Cowboys are fresh off a trouncing of the New York Giants at home, a game they won 44-20. The Patriots are on the heels of a huge road comeback against the Houston Texans. 

The sharps are all over New England at +3.5 in this one, pushing it down to 3 in some spots despite 77% of the money being on the Cowboys. You should be able to find a cheap +3 (in the +110 range) or an expensive +3.5 at around -120. 

Bill Bellicheck as a home underdog is, for me personally, not something I want to bet against. The Cowboys are probably slightly inflated from their big win last week, as well as having had their last three games at home. This is a tough road test for Dallas, and they likely aren’t worthy of being road 3.5 favorites quite yet. Especially in Foxborough.  

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (+3.5) 

Dan Campbell cried in his press conference after the Lions lost to the Vikings on the road last Sunday, that should tell you everything you need to know about how much he likes winning. The Bengals are off a heartbreaking loss of their own to the Green Bay Packers at home. 

Sharps are all over the Lions as home 3.5 point underdogs in this one. They are getting less of the bets (48%) but have been bet down to 3 a couple of times and are holding very steady at 3.5 without moving to 4. 

The Lions are widely regarded as a pretty solid 0-5 team, and they covered as home underdogs against the Ravens a few weeks back. A game they should have one. The Lions should have a couple of wins under their belt at this point, and sharps are betting with that thought in mind. 

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) 

The second London Game of the 2021 NFL Season features another pair of underwhelming teams. That doesn’t mean, though, that there isn’t still a sharp side. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS) will face off against the Miami Dolphins (1-4 SU, 2-3 SU). This line was sitting at +3.5 mid-week but has been bet down to a consensus point of +3 heading into Sunday morning. The vig has also gone from +3 -105 to +3 -115. 

It’s unlikely that this game goes to 2.5, as you will then see some big money come in on the Dolphins. So if you have the stomach to back Urban Meyer and the winless Jaguars in London, rest assured you’ll at least be with the Wiseguys.

Other Lines Getting Sharp Action

Browns -3.5 vs. Cardinals

WFT +7 vs. Chiefs

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