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Daily NFL Pick: Arizona Cardinals vs Cleveland Browns under 49.5 points (-110)

Under 49.5 points. Playable at that number.

Cleveland played a shootout with the Chargers last week but sportsbooks look to have adjusted their total line too much for the Browns’ game against the Cardinals this week, creating some value in the under.

Arizona’s offense found things difficult against San Francisco last week, and there’s a chance they were just being flattered while playing against softer defenses. That shouldn’t happen against Cleveland, who until last week had allowed just 13 total points in their previous two games.

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Kyler Murray is also dealing with an issue to his throwing shoulder, and that could have an impact. Either way, expect Myles Garrett to make his life very difficult.

On the other side of the ball, Arizona’s defense has been much improved from last year and should be able to keep Baker Mayfield in check. That could lead to them relying more on their run game, which, while effective, should keep the clock moving and limit possessions.

Go with the under.

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