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A couple of frustrating setbacks along with an unprepared Week 1 performance leave the Philadelphia Eagles 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS entering a Thursday Night Football clash with the Green Bay Packers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS), who remain perfect all the way around.
The betting market is showing heavy public action hammering the Packers as 4.5-point home favorites at a 73%-27% ratio even though Aaron Rodgers has been pedestrian-like through his first three games of the season. However, the one-sided fluctuation/progression is more about the Eagles inconsistency and sluggish play since their opener, including a most recent home loss to the Detroit Lions last week as a 4-point chalk.
Wiseguys steamed the Lions from an opening number of 7, and kept taking the reduced spread, but it still wasn’t enticing enough to garner action on the Birds shortened closing line. They have yet to take a position on either side of the Eagles/Packers game, but the total has dropped from a starting point of 47.5 to its current offering of 46 due to some involvement by professional betting syndicates.
Inexcusable mistakes are killing the Eagles, as they dropped seven passes, fumbled twice, and had three offensive pass interference penalties called against them in the showdown with Lions. One of those dropped balls came late in the 4th quarter that would have given the Eagles a high percentage chance to win the game.
Philadelphia is riddled with injuries, but they could get a much-needed boost with WR Alshon Jeffery, WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, TE Dallas Goedert, DE Derek Barnett and LB Nathan Gerry all practicing on Tuesday.
The Packers are seeking their first 4-0 SU start in four years, and most of the credit goes to the defense, who registered 12 sacks in its first three games…albeit 6 came against the Denver Broncos last week. Additionally, Green Bay is allowing nearly 100 fewer yards passing (197.3) than Philadelphia, and their +23 point differential is an extremely wide gap over the Eagles’ -2.
On offense, Green Bay has been held to less than 340 total yards in all three games, and prior to the 3-0 start this season, they were 3-11 SU over the past two years when failing to reach that total.
While Aaron Rodgers might not be putting up off-the-chart-numbers, his accuracy remains exceptional, with zero interceptions through three games, and only two since the start of last season. Of the 30 NFL quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts during that same span, everyone has a minimum of five INT’s, while 23 others have at least 10 on their resume.
- Green Bay has converted just 25.0 % of its third-down attempts (9-of-36), its lowest rate through three games over the past 25 seasons; subsequently, Philly has converted 56.3 % of its plays on third-down tries (27-for-48), its best mark since the 1994 campaign.
- The Eagles are point spread flunkies in their last six games in September (0-6 ATS).
- Aaron Rodgers has thrown 10 TD’s against zero interceptions in his last four games versus NFC East adversaries.
- Head-to-Head the road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.