This week we got the chance to speak with Charles Ormsby from SpreadKnowledge about advanced machine learning, the betting community and profitable live betting.
What is SpreadKnowledge and what is your USP?
Ormsby. SpreadKnowledge is a Social Sports Analytics platform aimed at cracking the very difficult problem of profitable point spread betting.
We push all our point spreads and moneyline picks through a very large machine algorithm comprised of approximately 4,000 data points which produce an expected value for that pick. The highest graded picks receive an “A” grade and those picks tend to beat the point spread 55-65% of the time depending on the sport. Higher scoring volume sports such as Football and Basketball tend to perform better due to the higher variance in their scoring.
To our members who join, we offer these Value Picks free of charge across all sports and encourage them to make their own betting decisions based on seeing a full set of data. In many ways, what we provide is a Historical Profit Index for each pick and the more historically profitable that pick has been in the past the better the chance that pick is profitable today.
How can bettors use your data to make smarter bets?
Ormsby. The two best places to go to view our data are our Value Picks and Analytics pages.
On our Value Picks page we rank the picks in order from most profitable to least profitable with easy to understand letter grades. If you want to dig a little deeper into our Analytics you can view our Matchup Previews where you can see a much lower level of detailed data. This provides a head to head comparison at the team level of how he team has performed generally against the spreads and also against each other specifically.
Lastly, if you just want the best picks delivered right to your inbox then use our Follow Systems options and follow our “Premium Value Picks” system which makes a handful of picks everyday based on the Value Picks and some human filtering to hand pick the highest value picks as we see it.
Tell me about your tools (make picks, leaderboards, live picks and follow systems) and how data analytics are used.
Ormsby. The social aspect of our community is at the heart of what we do. We encourage all our users to make picks everyday on our system so they can be tracked, graded and ultimately displayed to other members so everyone can benefit from the collective knowledge of the community. The more people that are making picks the better our consensus picks will be which should translate into more successful betting members on SpreadKnowledge.
Furthermore, as Live Betting becomes more commonplace one of our best features is our Live Spread Value alerts which show you the in-game value and where to lay your money. For example, imagine when last year Aaron Rodgers was down nearly four touchdowns in Detroit at halftime. The live in-game spread was Packers +24. That is a situation of extreme value and not only did the Packers cover that 24 points easily but they almost won the game.
It is really fun to lay money on the value side of in-game action as the games tend to regress back to the original point spreads at the closing time of the game. This was very evident last year when our Live Spread Value alerts were beating the live point spreads 2 out of 3 times for a near 70% winning rate which was extremely profitable for our members.
How the sports betting analytics data you gather be used to acquire customers?
Ormsby. Many of our top systems are highly profitable. It is difficult to be profitable against the point spread because it is often a coin flip. However, at SpreadKnowledge we come at the problem from a very different angle with 4,000 data points and our advance machine learning techniques which optimize those data points by sport.
Each sport is different and is treated differently while the model remains consistent which gives us great leverage over the field where many companies have a model for one sport but that same model might not work so well for other sports. We have one unified model and we process it uniquely for each sport which enables us to do things for the betting public that simply were not possible to date.
What are your thoughts on 2019 and the American sports betting market?
Ormsby. The betting market is going to change very significantly in the coming years as legalization expands and more peer to peer networks are available.
We believe SpreadKnowledge has some of the best point spread analytics available to the betting public today and encourage everyone to use it as a reference or double-check against their bets today. Being on the correct side of value is not only more profitable but it’s a lot more fun because you will win more.
In the future, as competition between bookmakers grow you will see much sharper lines that we do today and likely better prices. These are all good things for the public bettor. We are 100% behind the public bettor here at SpreadKnowledge and our mission is to see the public succeed more and more everyday.
If you are an avid sports bettor or a novice, games are always more fun when you have some action on the line and we see this as quite possibly the best way for leagues and organizations to more closely engage with the public. It’s an exciting time to be both in the fields of big data and sports betting.